Opening Remarks
Arrow season 6 is fast (but not fast enough) approaching and I for one am starting to get my mind back in Arrow-mode by reminding myself of all the hanging plot threads. Who is Vigilante? What's the deal with Helix and Cayden James? Who survived Lian Yu? It's gonna be a long 5 weeks until we start getting some answers, but at least I can hold myself over by theorizing about what's to come.
Lian Yu
I may as well start with the big one: who survived the explosion of Lian Yu? Well, probably almost everybody. For as much as the producers and cast are trying to stir up hype by acting like a bunch of main characters could be dead, I think it's a very fair assumption that pretty much everyone important is gonna be okay. Here's the breakdown:
Slade Wilson, Dinah Drake, and Black Siren are the only characters 100% definitively confirmed alive by the season 6 trailers, etc. In comments on Tumblr last year (before the finale), Marc Guggenheim confirmed to fans that Emily Bett Rickards (Felicity Smoak), David Ramsey (John Diggle), Paul Blackthorne (Quentin Lance), Willa Holland (Thea Queen), and Echo Kellum (Curtis Holt) would remain main cast members in season 6. Granted, that could turn out to be false, but even if not for Guggenheim's comments I would find it extremely unlikely that Arrow would kill off any of those characters at this point. Additionally, Rick Gonzales (Rene Ramirez) was officially announced as being upgraded to main cast for season 6, which all but confirms his survival as well.
So who does that leave as possible casualties? Nyssa al Ghul, Evelyn Sharp, Talia al Ghul, and Samantha Clayton. To start with the obvious, Evelyn is almost certainly dead. Let's be real, no one cared enough about her to go and save her from that little cage. Samantha is also a likely fatality, given that we know William will be living with Oliver at the start of season 6. However, it is also possible that Samantha is just in a coma or something, and she still has a chance of pulling through. In one manner of thinking, that route would be the more sensible decision for the writers, since it gives them an out to write William off the show if they decide they don't want him to be a permanent addition.
So then, what of the al Ghul sisters? I believe Talia is most likely alive. That character is way too major to not have a bigger role than what she was given in season 5. I will go into more detail below, but I believe it is quite likely that she will play a big role in the overarching conflict of season 6. Also, she was with Laurel when last seen, so Laurel's survival strongly suggests Talia's as well. The two of them would probably have known the locations of Prometheus' bombs and known where to hide to be safe.
I saved Nyssa for last because, for me, she has the biggest question mark next to her name. She's been a big part of Arrow for the last 5 years, but it seems plausible that the writers don't have any further storylines for her (so they would be willing to kill her off). On the other hand, she could just as easily become a big player in season 6, especially if her sister is to be a major villain. I have no prediction for Nyssa; she could go either way.
The Villainous Cabal: Helix, Talia, and Black Siren
Season 6 is gonna be featuring a cabal of villains in conflict with Team Arrow, as opposed to a single "big bad." The only person officially confirmed to be a member of this group is everybody's favorite smart-mouthed Russian mobster, Anatoly Knyazev. Richard Dragon / Ricardo Diaz is also gonna be a big villain this year, and it seems like a safe bet that he'll play into the cabal as well (as far as I know this hasn't been explicitly confirmed). Lastly, it has been confirmed that Helix will continue to appear in season 6. I think it is very likely that their leader Cayden James (likely played by Michael Emerson) will turn out to be evil and be a member of the villainous cabal.
But why? How to explain Helix's sudden turn from benevolent (albeit over-aggressive) hacktivists into cabal-worthy villains who canoodle with Russian mobsters? Well, as I posited in my season 5 endgame predictions post several months ago, my personal theory is that Helix has really been working against Team Arrow from the beginning.
Didn't it seem way too convenient that none of Helix's supposed "help" offered to Felicity against Prometheus actually ended up hurting him? Just the opposite, in fact: Prometheus seemed ready at every turn to exploit Helix's interferences to his advantage. Helix gives Team Arrow Susan Williams' location: Prometheus and Talia are already there waiting with a carefully laid ambush (5x16). Helix gives Felicity evidence that Adrian Chase is Prometheus: Adrian seems like he's just waiting for the the marshals guarding him to receive a call to arrest him so that he can murder them with a pen (5x18). Helix gives Felicity a device that can track down Adrian: Prometheus promptly detonates an EMP in the Arrowcave before the device can be used to his disadvantage (5x19). That's what I call too many coincidences.
Personally, I rather fancy the idea that Helix is Talia al Ghul's information-age version of the League of Assassins, using brutal methods to police the world with no accountability and according to their own questionable code of justice. That would make for a good way to roll both Helix and Talia into season 6's story, and resolve what exactly Talia's motivations were in the years after she parted ways with the League.
Even if the connection to Helix doesn't pan out, it seems quite likely that Talia will be a part of the villainous cabal. She's simply too big a character for her role in season 5 to be the end of her story. Now she's gonna be coming back after Oliver, madder than ever. I just wonder if Black Siren will be continuing to work for her this year. It seems likely given that Black Siren seems more apt to working for other supervillains than running her own operations. I suspect that Black Siren will be be the first thread of the villainous cabal that Team Arrow encounters in season 6--a thread that they can follow back up to the top of some dastardly conspiracy (you know, whatever that conspiracy may turn out to be).
Vigilante
Who is the man behind the ski mask with the borderline-supernatural ability to escape from rooms full of superheroes after losing a fight? Well, there's the realistic theory, and then there's my... uh, let's say imaginative theory.
One of the key pieces of evidence on this subject is some comment by Marc Guggenheim that everyone is interpreting to mean that we've already seen Vigilante's real face. Well, I read his exact words, and yes, that is--technically--what he said, but I think it's worth pointing out that it seems rather possible he meant that, by the time Vigilante is unmasked, we will have already seen his real face. I'm not saying that we necessarily haven't seen Vigilante's face, just I wouldn't be at all surprised if he turns out to be some new character that is introduced at the start of season 6.
With that in mind, for a while I thought that Slade's heretofore unseen son Joe Wilson was a likely candidate, but I have now discounted that possibility. It sounds like they're casting a teenager of age 15 or 16 to play Joe, which would make it pretty ridiculous if he were to be the Vigilante.
Update:
Yeah, so, turns out Joe Wilson is gonna be an adult. Nonetheless, I'm 99.99% sure he's not Vigilante. The bio they released about him describes him as an ASIS agent (in the footsteps of his father!) who Oliver and Slade are gonna have to rescue from a Kasnian prison. I can't imagine that storyline making any sense with Joe being the Vigilante. Besides, when you have two viable ideas for stories, you only make life harder for yourself by squeezing them both into one.
Anyways, here are my two theories.
The Realistic Theory: Frank Pike
Smart money says that SCPD captain Frank Pike is the man under the ski mask, and I happen to agree. For whatever it's worth, I actually came up with this theory before seeing it on the Internet...so...yeah.
There are several arguments in support of this prediction, with the simplest being mere process of elimination. If Vigilante really is some recurring character that we've seen before on Arrow, Pike is pretty much the only male who fits the bill and hasn't been seen at the same time as him. Frank Pike is a character who has had very sporadic appearances on the show since all the way back in the beginning of season 1. How cool would it be for a character like that to now turn out to be Vigilante?
Second, the timing of Pike's and Vigilante's appearances line up pretty well. In episode 5x16, Adrian Chase stabbed Pike and put him in a coma after Oliver gave Pike evidence that Chase was Prometheus. Since that point, Vigilante has not been seen again. Granted, before that point, he was only seen about 3 times in total, so this could very well be a meaningless coincidence. However, it does seem like it would make a very Arrow-esque story for season 6 to do an episode where Pike comes out of his coma and starts operating as Vigilante again. Tonally, one can imagine it working quite well.
Lastly, Pike's psychology (what little we know of it) seems a very good fit for the character of Vigilante. In the comics, the Vigilante mantle is held by a series of disillusioned law enforcement professionals who suffer from the gradual degradation of their mental health culminating in full-on breakdowns. It seems probable that Arrow's Vigilante will be someone working in law enforcement as well. I recently skimmed through episode 5x15 ("Fighting Fire with Fire," where Vigilante resurfaces and attacks Mayor Queen during his impeachment proceedings), and one line in particular really grabbed my attention: Frank Pike tells Adrian Chase something along the lines of "maybe the law enforcement system is broken, and we're not really fighting for anything valuable anymore." If that doesn't sound like Vigilante seeping through the cracks in Pike's persona, I don't know what does.
So there you have it: I believe it to be most likely that Captain Frank Pike is the Vigilante. Chances are, we'll get an episode like I described above where he comes out of his coma and starts operating as Vigilante again. That episode will most likely feature flashbacks to some defining moments in Pike's life over the last 5 years which detail his downfall from upstanding cop to trigger-happy vigilante. If done well (that's a big if), it could be one of the best story arcs in Arrow to date.
The Imaginative Theory: Adrian Chase
Hmmm, go read "Theory #1" from my season 5 endgame predictions post, then come back. Okay, done? Now we can begin.
I know that Prometheus isn't really the Human Target--I promise I do! But, as I have previously written, I'm not admitting my fault until the day that Christopher Chance saunters into the Arrowcave alive and well. Until then, as far as I'm concerned, Prometheus was Christopher Chance wearing a mask that allowed to imitate the real Adrian Chase. As the man says, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
That's right, the imaginative theory is that Vigilante is the real Adrian Chase. The one whose real life as District Attorney and wife to Doris was stolen by Prometheus. That means that Chase could be alive somewhere, maybe with a television-sized dose of amnesia that has prevented him from revealing his existence. See! This makes sense... kinda... sorta... maybe (not really).
As far as I can tell, Josh Segarra hasn't taken any other jobs that would prevent him from continuing to appear on Arrow, so that at least checks out. If his return is to be a successful surprise, they'd probably have him film one scene for the end of the mid-season finale ala Black Siren before having him make his full return.
Really, the main factor that disproves this theory is that I seriously doubt the Arrow writers would be willing to retroactively introduce such a huge change to the story of season 5. It would be too weird to undo so much of that story (which was already so well received) after the fact.
So yeah, I know: there's no way in hell this theory is right. But just in case, in that one-in-a-million shot that all this all comes through, at least now I'm on record predicting it ahead of time (for whatever that's worth). Now we can all go back to thinking that Frank Pike is the Vigilante.
Olicity
I'm just gonna sneak this one in down here where maybe no one will notice. Say what you will, but I like Olicity, goddammit! I'm just kidding about the sneaking in: I know it's just a vocal minority of the fans that so adamantly hate their romance (I'm not kidding about liking Olicity, by the way).
Anyways, it makes no difference whether you like them or not, because it sure seems like they're finally gonna be getting together, permanent-like. The end of episode 5x20 "Underneath" (which I thought was great, by the way; again, say what you will) pretty clearly signaled that the couple would be getting back together after wrapping up the fight against Prometheus. How William will complicate matters remains to be seen, but--son or no son--I seriously doubt that the writers will drag out the inevitable Olicity romance for another season. In my opinion, another year of "will they or won't they" dramatic tension won't do anything but aggravate all the fans,
My money's on a Oliver-Felicity/Barry-Iris double-wedding for this year's episode 8 mega-crossover. That certainly seems to be what the producers are hinting at with their sly remarks that "love is in the air" for this crossover and that the crossover will depict a major life event in several characters' lives. What else could that be referring to? Also, it kinda makes sense from a logistical standpoint to roll both weddings into one crossover, since either wedding alone would pretty much have to be a Flash/Arrow crossover anyways.
In my opinion, the idea of a wedding crossover certainly has all the potential to be wildly entertaining (if handled right, of course). A rehearsal dinner afterparty ala Avengers: Age of Ultron... heroes in tuxedos and long dresses kicking ass... Quentin and Donna Smoak crossing paths again... and Mick inhaling booze and hors d'oeuvres galore! What's not to love?!?
Well, I'll tell you what. A double-wedding crossover probably isn't gonna leave much screen time for a particularly cool villain with a compelling evil plan. I imagine the end result will be something quite similar to "Invasion!" where the actual alien invasion was little more than background for the protagonists and the plotline for 3 hours of television was so simplistic that I had pretty much divined the whole thing beforehand from a 3 minute trailer.
Fortunately, the protagonists are entertaining enough that this approach is not disastrous, but there's just so much missed potential for truly movie-quality stories in these annual crossovers. Maybe I'm wrong and the crossover will be able to juggle two weddings and a cinematic super-conflict into a cohesive 4-hour package. The Arrow season 5 finale "Lian Yu" certainly demonstrated just how tightly-written and exciting these shows can be when the writers really put their minds to it. I hope that they are able to apply that same approach to the crossover.
Closing Remarks
There it is. As I alluded to in my opening remarks, my real reason for writing this is just to satisfy my Arrow-cravings until the season starts. Like most fans, I was very happy with the direction the show moved in season 5, and I have no reason for anything but continued optimism going into season 6.
In the spirit of making predictions, what of Legends of Tomorrow and Flash? How and why are Damien Darkh, Gorilla Grodd, and Kuasa gonna come together and threaten the Legends?!? Something something something the Thinker?!? (In case you can't tell, my expectations for the Flash are very low going into new television season.) Let me know any predictions you have for the shows' returns in the comments. No theory is too wild, in case my Adrian Chase/Human Target rant above didn't already demonstrate that.
Hope you enjoyed!
Phillip
